Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors

In this paper the authors present method of estimation a region, waiting period and probability strong earthquakes with K S ≥ 13.5 ( M 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on combination mid-term short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological parameter ξ P was taken as precursor. It calculated basis probabilistic model seismic regime. A complex ionospheric parameters considered an up to 5 days. includes K-layer, sporadic Es layer r type, critical frequency f oF2, stratification F2 layer. probabilities that occurred over 2019–2021 expected zone, determined by , were estimated Bayes provided anomalous ionosphere identified.